As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) regained some of the momentum she had lost to Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in the protracted fight for the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday night, Stanford supporters from both camps offered positive outlooks on the evening’s results and were optimistic about what the future holds.
Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain clinched his party’s nomination with sweeping victories in all four states that voted last night — Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas and Vermont — prompting his main challenger, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, to concede the GOP nomination. But the Democratic picture is far murkier after last night’s results.
Obama handily won Vermont, but he lost a close race to his rival in Texas and dropped the contests in Rhode Island and, more importantly, in Ohio by significant margins, ceding much of the momentum he had earned with wins in 11 straight contests going into last night’s primaries.
Despite wins in three of the four states voting yesterday, however, Clinton still trails Obama in the delegate count because of the complicated nature of the Democratic Party’s delegate allocation system.
WHAT THE WINS MEAN
Clinton supporters on campus were relieved that the New York senator was able to post wins in Ohio and Texas after going nearly a full month without a victory in a single primary or caucus.
Mishan Araujo ‘08, the Northern California chair of Women for Hillary — a branch of Clinton’s national presidential campaign — said that Clinton’s wins in Texas and Ohio were important in her continued fight for the Democratic nomination. There was intense speculation in the days leading up to yesterday’s vote that if Clinton had lost either Texas or Ohio she might concede the nomination to Obama.
“I think it’s a really good thing that she won [yesterday],” Araujo said. “Had she not won, it would have been a big blow to the campaign because so much time and energy was poured into Texas and Ohio.”
While Clinton supporters were relieved and excited with the New York Senator’s wins yesterday, Obama backers pointed to the Illinois Senator’s still commanding delegate lead as evidence that he is still on track to the nomination despite losses in yesterday’s contests.
Debashish Bakshi ‘08, the Stanford chapter coordinator of Students for Barack Obama, said he was disappointed with the results but cautiously optimistic about the future.
“Well I’m a little disappointed,” he said. “It seemed yesterday that the last polls coming in indicated that we would be disappointed in Ohio. For Texas, we knew it would be close, and it is going to be close. But really what it comes down to after the dust settles tomorrow is the Obama campaign maintaining a healthy lead in delegates, and from what I understand there is going to be another batch of superdelegates ready to endorse Obama.”
Bakshi downplayed Clinton’s wins yesterday in light of what he sees as Obama’s insurmountable delegate lead.
“[Winning yesterday] helped Hillary a lot in terms of the media narrative,” he said, “but when it comes down to the delegate arithmetic, I don’t see how tonight really helped Clinton.”
THE ROAD AHEAD
As the two Democratic candidates march on to Wyoming, which votes Saturday, and Mississippi, which votes next Tuesday, they are undoubtedly looking forward to the next — and final — big battleground state: Pennsylvania, which will not vote until Apr. 22.
Araujo stressed the importance of establishing a strong network of on-the-ground organizers as early as possible.
“I think the campaign needs to get into Mississippi and Pennsylvania early to establish groundwork early,” she said. “Hillary fails when she doesn’t have a strong presence in a state, so the most important thing for her is having field operations in those states coming up.”
Bakshi said that while a drawn-out primary contest helps the Democratic Party build infrastructure in key swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, it is on the whole bad for the Party. As a result, Bakshi said, he believes Clinton will feel an increasing amount of pressure from senior Democratic officials to withdraw from the race before voters in Pennsylvania cast their ballots six weeks from now.
“I think continuation from this point forward really detracts from the ultimate goal of beating John McCain and taking back the White House in November,” he said. “I think Party leaders like [Speaker of the House] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.] and others will see that and will urge Clinton to back out. I personally don’t think Hillary Clinton will go into Pennsylvania as a candidate for the nomination.”
WHAT ROLE WILL SUPERDELEGATES PLAY?
Despite Bakshi’s prediction that Clinton may drop out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary, with her wins yesterday in Texas and Ohio, the New York senator appears poised to contest the nomination all the way to the Democratic convention in late August.
It appears increasingly likely that neither Clinton nor Obama will earn the 2,025 delegates needed to clinch the nomination by the convention and that the so-called superdelegates — Democratic members of Congress and Party officials who are free to vote as they want — will ultimately decide the nominee.
Araujo argued that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) would have no choice but to seat at the convention delegates from Michigan and Florida— two states which moved their primaries up in the calendar against Party rules and were subsequently stripped of their delegates as punishment. Clinton won both states by wide margins and has argued that their delegates should be seated.
“I think [a brokered convention] is going to be really hard for the Party to take in many ways,” Araujo said. “I think the role of superdelegates is really difficult to translate to the average Democratic Party member. I worry a little bit about that. I think there’s going to be a lot of pressure on DNC members to allow Florida and Michigan to seat their delegates at the convention.”
Bakshi, though, said that Obama’s lead in pledged delegates — which he is expected to maintain all the way into August — would be impossible for superdelegates to ignore.
“Given our pledged delegate lead and overall delegate lead and money raised in February . . . given all these factors it’s going to come down to what superdelegates are persuaded by,” he said. “I think it would be difficult for superdelegates to go for a candidate that didn’t have more pledged delegates.”
Bakshi called for the New York senator to withdraw from the race in an effort to promote Democratic Party unity entering the general election in November.
“While Clinton can continue this, I don’t think it’s in the best interest of the Party for her to do so,” he said. “I’ll be interested to see what happens.”

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