Either a woman or an African American will lead the Democratic ticket in this November’s election.

Talking about these historic firsts has become somewhat cliche, a line trotted out by Democrats eager to shore up party unity in the wide-open presidential race, but it remains a flashpoint.

“Identity will be a big, huge factor,” said English Prof. Paula Moya, who has written extensively on the role of minority identity in politics. “It’s not going to be pretty. Negative campaigning, especially when you invoke race or gender, has worked.”

With Democratic voters heading to the polls in 22 states today, including California, analysts are closely watching how well Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) can perform among the critical constituencies of women, Latinos and African Americans.

Even on one of the most diverse college campuses in the country, race and gender have been part of the conversation about the candidates. And the way the battle is shaping up, it seems possible that race or gender will feature even more prominently in the general election campaign than it has in the primary.

About 60 people crammed into a Tresidder Student Union meeting room on Monday afternoon to listen to four professors ponder the complexity of “identity politics” for over 90 minutes.

“Never in American history have race and gender played such a prominent role,” said Law School Prof. Deborah Rhode, at an event sponsored by University programs in Ethics, Feminist Studies, Gender Research and African American Studies.

Obama has largely tried to transcend race in the campaign. Supporters at his South Carolina victory rally last month reportedly cheered, “Race doesn’t matter.”

The Illinois senator, born of a Kenyan father and an American mother, faces a difficult balancing act, according to English Prof. Michele Elam. She said he has been criticized by some for not being “black enough” and for “being too black” by others.

“He has not brought up his blackness, except as a response,” Moya added. “He has also invoked his white racial heritage. There’s a very clear message, saying, ‘I’m not just black. I have Midwestern values.’ Now what are Midwestern values? It’s a code word for white values.”

Gender has also been a part of Clinton’s bid. The attention that followed Clinton’s “tearing up” incident has been cited as one factor that helped her win New Hampshire. Her occasional reference to breaking through the glass ceiling and her marriage to former President Bill Clinton keeps her gender at the center of her narrative.

Student feelings

Mondaire Jones ‘09, the ASSU Vice President and former Program Coordinator of the Black Community Services Center, is supporting Obama but insists that race had absolutely nothing to do with his decision. He thinks some of the media stories oversimplify the contest as being between race versus gender when a lot more is in play.

“I happen to know several black people who are supporting Hillary, including my own dad,” Jones said. “I really don’t think that color or race is the overriding issue. When I have conversations with people, people say they’re not just going to vote for him because he’s black or for her just because she’s a woman.”

Students interviewed said they did not make their decision solely because of the candidate’s race or gender, even if they acknowledge it as a factor.

ASSU Senator Andrew Lomeli ‘09 worked hard for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who dropped out of the race. Now, he’s supporting Obama.

“It’s definitely not a racial thing or a community thing,” he said. “It’s a personal thing.”

At weekly meetings of “Vitality,” a Jewish women’s health group on campus, members have been talking about the upcoming vote.

“How much does it matter to us as women?” asked the group’s leader, Becca Tisdale ‘09. “Is it fair for us to support her because she’s a woman?

“We all agree that it’s not enough,” she said, noting she would vote for Clinton but her group seemed about evenly divided.

Clinton tends to lead among women and Latino voters in national polls, whereas Obama captures the most support from younger people and African Americans. Momentum for Obama after South Carolina has put the candidates on even footing in national and statewide polls.

History

Race has always been a part of America’s political culture. History Prof. Clayborne Carson, an expert on Martin Luther King Jr., said race has been the elephant in the room, whether mentioned or not, during every presidential election in American history. From the Three-Fifths Compromise to the Civil War, Jim Crow and Nixon’s Southern Strategy, he said that racial fears have always been a part of national elections.

The 1964 election, when Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide, was the last time that the majority of white and black Americans voted for the same presidential candidate.

“I hope that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton can be the candidate that will at last get us to a new era of discussion about race and gender,” Carson said.

Analysts have predicted that the Hispanic population’s strong support for Clinton, especially in southern California, could help her win California.

“Most people just see TV ads,” Moya said. Even if they don’t have evidence to support it, “Latinos don’t automatically think that a black president will represent their issues.”

Polls show a clear gender gap that aids Clinton among likely women voters.

Rhode said she would prefer the leadership of a feminist man over some of the female leaders of other industrialized powers any day.

“Putting women in power is not the same thing as empowering women,” Rhode said to applause at Monday’s forum.

A student who has been volunteering with Clinton’s campaign said she has seen an extra level of excitement for the New York senator from women in their 40s and 50s.

“Most of the females on campus are probably pretty evenly divided,” said Mishan Araujo ‘08, the northern California chair of Women for Hillary. “I don’t think it’s one way or another, but it’s exciting to male and female feminists that a woman may get elected.”

Moya said both Obama and Clinton have very similar positions on the issues as centrist Democrats.

“We’re going to have to come together in a serious way,” she said, “because that anti-woman or anti-black factor is going to become really fierce.”