The White House and Congress have approved a tax refund plan that is meant to stimulate much needed consumer spending in the economy. The stimulus package, amounting to $150 billion, will be broadly distributed to some 117 million American households and businesses. Politicians ranging from President George W. Bush to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) expressed the wish to disburse the funds immediately. This exhibition of urgency and swiftness, all too unaccustomed behavior on the Hill these days, has the explicit purpose of limiting the impact of the recession.

But is the recession a foregone conclusion? Many financial firms believe we’re already in a recession. That is a particularity of the phenomenon, that business downturns are only verified after they are underway. Their occurrence and magnitude are as hard to pin down as the roadrunner of our cartoon days, pursued by Wiley Coyote market forecasters who use the most sophisticated technology to model something that remains elusive. These forecasters are as skeptical on the proposed package funneling out of the government as they are of the economy. Perhaps the package is doing more harm than good; perhaps the mere action of dousing a fire after noticing smoke only serves as an accelerant.

After all, the subprime mortgage crisis that initiated the supposed downturn is not being felt by all. To a certain extent, the losses incurred are localized to recent home buyers and home loan investors. These actors in society will certainly see a difficult future to come, but this fate should not necessary befall the outsiders. If consumers don’t see a recession as imminent — and therefore spend with a cautious but optimistic outlook — then perhaps the injury to the economy will be less than expected. Consumers, though, may be persuaded by rhetoric to the contrary. Once the belief in recession is set in, everyday citizens stop spending, businesses cut back their inventory, investors become speculative even on promising endeavors, and the once healthily churning wheel of industry slows to a standstill.

For all the talk of saving impending doom, the economic stimulus package merely whimpers. Few analysts believe that the tax rebates, amounting to about one percent of the annual U.S. gross domestic product, will make much of a difference at all. Many have dismissed the move as a political one, allowing our elected officials to feel as if they are at least doing something to stem the fallout. Indeed, if the package serves to seal a federal stamp of inevitability on the recession, most of the refund may end up sitting in American savings accounts. After all, if our leadership thinks times will be bad, maybe it would be better not to take that summer trip abroad after all. The dollar is not doing so hot anyway.

Of course, the uncertain outcome of this particular package does not mean all governmental packages should be written off. If the refund were tweaked, perhaps the effect would be more powerful. For instance, instead of broadly dispersing funds to American households the rebates could be targeted to those suffering at the hands of the crisis. Perhaps leaving white-collar financial services workers aside, the money could go to low-income households in dire need of the cash influx. These consumers would much more likely spend a large portion the money given to them, as their benefit from consuming is much higher than middle-income or high-income families. Since the primary objective of the stimulus package is to get people to spend, this targeted approach might be the key.

Critics would likely point to the moral hazard of this policy. After all, the Americans that would be receiving the tax refunds are the very ones who made the bad decision to take out loans they would not be able to pay. Perhaps writing them a fat check does not encourage the best future behavior. To them, we say that protecting a weak economy is the greater good. If changing the stimulus package results in effective policy, then not following through just forces everyone to suffer. And as the government’s rhetoric has already done its damage to the American psyche, we must ensure that the implementation of any plan prompts a gentle landing.