There’s an old saying in Hollywood that “you’re only as good as your last picture.” When deciding who’s “in” and who’s “out” in Tinseltown these days, that maxim is worth keeping in mind.

Sam Raimi: The creator of the “Evil Dead” trilogy and creative genius behind the “Spider-man” franchise, Raimi is currently one of Hollywood’s most sought after directors. His phenomenal success with Peter Parker has also made him one of the few directors that film geeks would be comfortable with tackling an adaptation of “The Hobbit”.....which is a good thing if recent rumors are to be believed. Would Raimi’s version of Tolkien’s book be any good? I’m not sure but it’s hard to imagine someone who’s better-suited to this kind of material (other than Peter Jackson). Raimi is definitely “in.”

Alfonso Cuaron: Okay, so it wasn’t that hard to imagine someone better-suited to “The Hobbit” after all! Cuaron’s work with “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” should convince you of that. His most recent endeavor, “Children of Men,” was also very smart. Cuaron is “in” and so is fellow Mexican director and good friend . . .

Guillermo del Toro: Actually, Del Toro should be a contender for directing “The Hobbit” as well. “Pan’s Labyrinth” was one of best films of 2006. At the very least, the year’s most visually striking movie. The “Hellboy” director is definitely “in.”

Sofia Coppola: Speaking of visually striking, “Marie Antoinette” was a splendid movie to look at. Unfortunately, it was also an interminable bore and one 2006’s most vapid movies. Despite their visual and aural similarities, it’s difficult to reconcile Coppola’s involvement in both this movie and “Lost in Translation.” The daughter of legendary director Francis Ford Coppola is “out.”

M. Night Shyamalan: My oh my. If “Marie Antoinette” was one of the emptiest movies of 2006, “Lady in the Water” was one of the stupidest. Words cannot describe how painful it is to watch Shyamalan’s latest attempt to blend fantasy and reality. The director was showing “signs” (Geddit? Ah, that’s just too funny!) of creative fatigue with “The Village” but few would have predicted something this awful. Shyamalan is also “out.”

Mel Gibson: The star of Shyamalan’s alien invasion film “Signs,” Gibson didn’t have the best 2006 and managed to add to this article’s opening phrase: “You’re only as good as your last picture. But if you behave like a retarded anti-semite, it doesn’t matter if your last movie was ‘Citizen Kane.’ “ Apparently “Apocalypto” was a really good film but it barely recouped its production cost at the US box office. Gibson is “out.”

Tom Cruise: Perhaps Gibson should have paid closer attention to the recent misfortunes of Tom Cruise? “Mission Impossible III” was artistically the best of the series (not saying much) but its domestic take of $133 million was well below that of the first two movies. Cruise is certainly “out.”

Katie Holmes: The mother of Cruise’s child and former “Dawson’s Creek” star, Holmes is also “out.” Literally that is! Though her character from “Batman Begins” returns for its sequel, “Dark Knight,” Holmes won’t be reprising the role. Current rumors suggest the gorgeous Rachel McAdams (“The Notebook,” “Red Eye”) will be playing Bruce Wayne’s girlfriend instead. McAdams is “in.”

Johnny Depp: Speaking of blockbuster sequels, “Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End” isn’t far off. Though Depp’s portrayal of antihero Jack Sparrow wasn’t as fresh the second time around, “Dead Man’s Chest” still managed to gross more than a billion dollars worldwide. Come May, I’m sure Depp’s presence will help the franchise amass more treasure chests of gold. Depp is still “in.”

Jessica Alba: While a lot of people will be looking forward to the aforementioned third “Pirates” movie, I can’t imagine anyone’s really looking forward to “Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer.” I’m betting the film will suck but I’m also betting Jessica Alba will survive the wreckage....further adding to the above maxim: “You’re only as good as your last picture. But if you’re as good-looking as Jessica Alba, your last picture can be “Showgirls” and you’ll still have a career.” Alba, like Depp, is still “in.”

Leonardo DiCaprio: Speaking of good-looking actors, a few years ago very few people would have listed the “Titanic” star as a serious actor. However, recent performances in “The Aviator,” “The Departed” and “Blood Diamond” have changed all that. Nominated for a Best Actor Oscar for his work in the latter, DiCaprio is now “in.”

And the final person on the list? None other than DiCaprio’s “Departed” director . . .

Martin Scorsese: Though he’s made some of the greatest movies ever made, the veteran filmmaker has never taken home the Oscar for best director. Nevertheless, many are predicting that 2007 will be the year Scorsese is finally “in.”