Three nuclear policy experts highlighted tension between the potential benefits and dangers of nuclear energy before more than 170 students, faculty and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in a discussion yesterday evening.

The event, entitled “Nuclear Power without Nuclear Proliferation,” was sponsored by the Academy in collaboration with the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and was moderated by CISAC Co-Director Scott Sagan.

An all-star panel included former Defense Secretary and Management Science and Engineering Prof. William Perry; Co-Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s non-proliferation program Alexei Arbatov; and Thomas Isaacs, director of the office of policy, planning and special studies at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

“Perhaps the only viable short-term solution [to reducing emissions] that will reach usable scale quickly will be nuclear power,” President John Hennessy said in his introductory remarks.

The speakers agreed on the importance of civilian nuclear programs as a means of reducing carbon emissions.

“Nuclear power has a number of serious advantages in terms of its impacts on global climate change,” Isaacs said.

But Perry painted a grim picture of the potential consequences of unchecked proliferation, arguing that gains from nuclear power have to be carefully balanced against its costs — including increased risks that terrorists or rogue nations could acquire weapons-grade fissile material.

He cited a study that predicted more than 100,000 deaths and massive political and economic disruption if a nuclear device detonated in a major city.

“The social chaos that would be engendered by fear would be unimaginable,” Perry warned. “We also concluded that there was no way of preventing the movement of a bomb or fissile material into an American city. There is no real way of defending against such an attack.”

Panelists agreed that proliferation risks were on the rise.

“If the trends which are currently going on continue, then the combat deployment of a nuclear device for the first time since August 1945 in the next five to 10 years will become very likely or unavoidable,” said Arbatov, a former member of the Russian Duma (parliament).

Nevertheless, Perry said that the continuing spread of nuclear power was an inevitable answer to growing energy needs.

“Many experts believe that major increases in new generations of nuclear plants are a critical part of the solution,” he said. “Even if you don’t agree with that, it’s clear that many other nations do.”

“There is likely to be a growth and, more importantly, a spread of nuclear power plants around the world,” Isaacs said, noting that 56 countries currently operate research reactors and 40 other nations have expressed interest in developing a civilian nuclear capability.

With interest in nuclear know-how disseminating all over the world, Isaacs argued that only a close watch on the supply of nuclear material could prevent a terrorist nuclear device.

The vast majority of these countries do not operate their own facilities for the enrichment of uranium, he said, instead relying on the purchase of nuclear fuel from nuclear weapons states by the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

“I believe the only thing between us and a national or sub-national group getting their hands on a nuclear weapon is the material itself,” Isaacs said.

Instead of attempting to discourage nations from developing their own power facilities and driving them to construct their own enrichment plants, which are harder to monitor, Isaacs said nuclear weapons states should continue to make nuclear material available on the open market to nations that want it.

“I believe they should have the right to move to nuclear power once they’ve met certain protocols like signing on to IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspections,” he said.

Isaacs added that major nuclear powers should also help fledgling civilian nuclear programs get access to facilities for reprocessing nuclear waste.

“I think we’ve got to stop lecturing people, and we’ve got to start leading by example,” he said. “We need to work with them as partners. We need to give them a stake in the success of these reprocessing plants. Otherwise, it’s going to look like the ‘haves’ trying to keep the ‘have-nots’ out of the business.”

Although the speakers said that a renewed commitment to nuclear safeguards could harness the positive aspects of nuclear power while mitigating proliferation risks, they noted that popular support for such measures is still lacking.

Arbatov said that the United States and Russia have engaged in “a sadomasochistic effort of dismantling the nuclear arms control regime” at precisely the time when “more stringent control and accounting” are needed.

“The solution must lie in establishing protocols for how nuclear plants are operated and how nuclear fuels are handled,” Perry said. “There are many alternatives but no political will [to] enact them on a global scale.”