SMS
RSS feeds
Reddit
NewsvineJinja, uganda (July 17) — Save for the occasional story about marauding pirates off its coast, Somalia has largely been off of the radar of the
Enlarge
international community since the disastrous U.S. mission in 1993 that left 18 U.S. soldiers and a much greater number of Somalis dead.
Now, however, the country is reemerging in headlines with June’s violent takeover of Mogadishu by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) which expelled the warlords who used to control the city by militia rule. The strict Wahabi Islam practiced by the courts, the long status of Somalia as a failed state and the intense competition by regional actors Ethiopia and Eritrea for influence in the country all present strong similarities to the rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Both countries are among the least stable in the world. The Failed States Index, an annual rating system compiled by The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy Magazine, ranked Somalia and Afghanistan within the 10 worst countries in 2005 and 2006 reports.
As in Afghanistan, the rise of a religious force seems to have taken nearly everyone by surprise. As East African Standard correspondent Abdulkadir Khalif wrote on July 3, “No one in his or her right mind even a year ago could have imagined that powerful militia leaders like the skillful political manipulator Mohamed Qanyare Afrah and the feared Muse Sadi Yalahow would be reduced to fugitives by a bunch of clergy men.” Perhaps the most shocked were the warlords themselves, and the U.S. State Department, if allegations that the warlords were U.S. backed are true.
As in Afghanistan, the appeal for Islamic rule grew out of frustration with the anarchy caused by years of rule by armed militias directed by warlords. In both countries militiamen could rape, extort and kill with impunity. The UIC was created though an alliance of 11 Islamic courts in Mogadishu that emerged as representatives of the rule of law in the years of chaos since the 1991 collapse of the central government. The courts, operating according to Islamic law, were initially sponsored by businessmen who agreed that the state of mayhem under militias was bad for business. The Taliban, led by a mysterious man known as Mullah Omar, began as a network of religious leaders spurred into action by the immoral and arbitrary rule of Afghanistan’s warlords. Both groups are organized by shura or Supreme Islamic Council.
The UIC, led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, has pledged that it will not imitate the rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan —a good plan since the Taliban was known to keep its central treasury in a wooden strongbox under Mullah Omar’s bed—and even offered to cooperate with the U.S. The establishment of law and order is a major improvement, and the BBC reports that food costs have decreased as there are no longer militia check-points demanding money. But even as Mogadishu becomes safer for average Somalis under the UIC, regional tensions are escalating as the group attempts to consolidate control of the whole country.
Somalia is playing the arena to regional tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia supports the Baidoa-based Somali transitional government — which was established in 2004 as a result of African Union sponsored talks —while Eritrea has been accused of arming the UIC. Peace talks between the transitional government and the UIC collapsed in June as the UIC expanded its military activities. On Friday, Reuters reported that Ethiopia had sent troops to the city of Baidoa in anticipation of a possible UIC attack.
The competing agendas of neighboring countries Iran and Pakistan also played a significant role in the sustained fighting in Afghanistan. In his 2000 book Taliban, Ahmed Rashid explains that Pakistan benefited enormously from a smuggling trade through Afghanistan and supported the Taliban so that Pakistan would only have to work through one intermediary. Iran, a largely Shiite population feared the rise of the conservatively Sunni Taliban and supported the Northern Resistance.
It is too early to know whether Somalia will follow Afghanistan’s road to repressive Islamic rule and large-scale war. Khalif writes that Somalis “have by-and-large welcomed the Islamic victory not so much on religious as on public order grounds.” The Taliban was also widely appreciated as a respite from years of warlords, but quickly grew extreme and tyrannical. Even if the UIC is as dissimilar as it claims, the uncanny parallels mean that lessons from Afghanistan should be carefully examined by international actors in Somalia. The recent resurgence of violence by Taliban supporters shows that Afghanistan is still unstable five years after the American invasion. Somalia cannot afford to suffer from similar mistakes.
Philosopher Georg W. F. Hegel wrote, “We learn from history that man can never learn anything from history.” Those who wish for peace and stability in Somalia and the Horn of Africa must desperately hope he was wrong. n