A deadly virus has spread like wild fire through the bird flocks of Asia and Central Europe. The H5N1 strain of influenza, also known as Killer Flu, has claimed at least 58 lives and threatens to mutate into a pathogen that could spread from human to human, kill millions and wreak havoc on the global economy.

A panel of six Stanford health experts discussed preparation for a pandemic, offered advice for individuals hoping to minimize their risk and debated how great a threat avian flu could be after the screening of a PBS documentary in Fairchild Auditorium last night.

The presentation took an alarmist tone at points.

“We were not prepared for Sept. 11; we were not prepared for Hurricane Katrina; so will we be prepared for Avian Flu?” asked narrator Bill Moyers in the opening sequence of a one-hour documentary produced by PBS’ Wide Angle Productions. The documentary told the story of the efforts made by the American and Vietnamese governments to limit the transmission of avian flu.

“The general consensus among scientists who are studying this is that it is not a matter of if a pandemic will happen, but when,” said panel moderator Microbiology and Immunology Prof. Lucy Tompkins, after the documentary.

When asked to offer an estimate of how many could be infected, Tompkins told the audience that an outbreak could compare to the 1918 bird flu that killed more than 20 million people across the world, a number greater than total dead from shots fired in World War One.

Representatives of the University and the Hospital said that precautions and preparations are made for every kind of possible emergency, including the Killer Flu.

“The University is really trying to prepare both to take care of their own students if necessary but also to see if or how the University could take care of the community,” Tompkins said.

“We have to prepare for everything,” said Eric Weiss, chairman of the Emergency and Disaster Committee as well as the Bioterrorism Task Force.

“The problem with disaster planning is surge capability,” he said. Even without a tragedy or flu epidemic, there are no unoccupied beds available at the Hospital at this time. The Hospital works to create the ability to ramp up in case of emergency by accumulating beds, ventilators and other equipment people would need in the case of an outbreak, he added.

“We know what our total capacity for ventilators is in this hospital,” Tompkins said. “We could only cover a miniscule amount of people who might need those ventilators.”

“[We are trying to develop] a new triage system which allows us to take care of the sickest patients and those who have the highest chance of survival,” Weiss added.

“[Hospital representatives] are on a number of committees that look at planning for a pandemic,” said Sasha Madison, the manager of the Infection Control and Epidemiology Department at Stanford Hospital.

The hospitals have been working with Santa Clara and San Mateo County health officials to prepare educational materials and hotlines for the public in the immediate aftermath of an outbreak.

Weiss told The Daily after the event that county and state planning is still in the “early stages.” He recently participated in a county-wide table top exercise. The county would use an ice-skating rink as a makeshift morgue, he noted.

He worried that health care workers might not report to work if widespread infection does occur. In Toronto, he said, many health care workers stayed home during the SARS epidemic.

“My job is to educate [hospital workers] so they can properly protect themselves from the spread of infectious diseases,” he said. “If we do this, we will ensure that they will come into work.”

Separation, isolation and quarantine would be important in case of a serious pandemic, the panel members said.

“If people start getting the flu, they need to separate themselves from large groups of people,” said Infection Control Nurse Pat Rutherford, who discussed the formation of neighborhood watch groups to check on people who live alone. “We need to think about what kinds of community resources we have that are not going to cost a lot of money.”

Debra Johnson, a nurse at the Infection Control and Epidemiology Department at Stanford Hospital and Clinics, implored audience members to think about how they would cope if there were a massive outbreak in the Bay Area and to exercise what she called “respiratory etiquette.”

“Now we have to start thinking about what happens if we can not go to work and kids can not go to school,” she said. “Families should think about keeping basic medical supplies and basic essentials.”

Stanford doctors are key players in the national effort to prepare for an outbreak of bird flu. They are seeking volunteers for a clinical study of an experimental flu vaccine in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health. The goal, they said, is to determine the best vaccine dose and combination of adjuvant, a substance to enhance immunity. Fliers were handed out to attendees, and participants will be paid $30 for each clinic visit.

Another concern expressed by panelists was that younger people are at greater risk of contracting Killer Flu. Half of the people who died from the 1918 pandemic were 20-to 40-years-old. The avian bird flu in Southeast Asia has attacked victims of all ages, as well.

One panelist took a contrary view about the risk the disease poses, saying he was not as certain as other experts.

“I do agree that this is a threat,” said Microbiology and Immunology Prof. Robert Siegel. “There may be gaps in the ways governments are thinking about intervening.”

“We need to downgrade this from a certainty into a possibility,” he added. “There are a number of other strains that have entered the human population, but you do not hear about the other mutations.”

Audience members said that the panel helped them think about how to better prepare for a possible outbreak.

Husband and wife Pete and Sandi Michel traveled 80 miles for the event. They said they were struck by the importance that panelists placed on creating social distance and isolation to prevent the spread of the disease.

“On the one hand, you could call it alarmism,” Pete Michel said. “But on the other hand, it does not hurt to prepare.”

“Thousands of people come through my office so I was trying to look at the practical side of preparation,” added Sandi Michel, a social worker who is concerned about the risk of an outbreak.

Others in the audience said they thought that public awareness campaigns are important to prepare for Killer Flu.

“I am somewhat concerned about educating the population,” said EMT Rakesh Bharania. “Without going overboard, it is important to be real with the problem and get past the hype.”